Climate economist Professor Hong Jong-ho has shared his predictions for this summer’s heat.
Professor Hong Jong-ho appeared as a guest on the 343rd episode of tvN’s variety show ‘You Quiz on the Block’ (hereafter ‘You Quiz’), which aired on May 13.
During the episode, Yoo Jae-suk mentioned the strange weather patterns recently, where it felt like midsummer one moment and then suddenly became cold enough to need a padded jacket. In response, Professor Hong Jong-ho shared, “1989 was my first year in my PhD program. At that time, a professor of climatology told me, ‘In the future, temperatures will continue to rise, but they will get hotter while increasing volatility, going up and down like gears.’ I always remember that graph. I wondered if such a thing would actually happen, and while it’s fascinating that the prediction was correct, it’s also uncomfortable.”
When Yoo Jae-suk expressed worry about how hot this summer would be, Professor Hong predicted, “Statistically, it’s already out. The past three years—2023, 2024, and 2025—were the hottest three years. To put it in numbers, those years were an average of 1.5 degrees hotter. This summer might not reach 1.6 degrees, but we can expect a 1.5-degree rise, which is the critical threshold scientists always worry about. It doesn’t seem like this summer will pass by coolly.”
Yoo Jae-suk reacted by saying, “When you hear 1.something degrees, it doesn’t feel that high.” To this, Professor Hong gave a simple example: “It’s a metaphor I use often, but when you go to a sauna with your father as a child, you know how they go into the hot bath? The temperature difference between the warm bath and the hot bath is only about 1.5 to 2 degrees. It’s a bit different since one is water and the other is air, but still.” Yoo Jae-suk was shocked, saying, “Now that you’ve explained the difference between the warm and hot baths, I can really feel it.”
